洪祖运纽约演讲：中国法律市场的潜力与外资律所的机遇（中英文对照）
作者 / 洪祖运
来源 / 智合法律新媒体
2018年4月29日，智合“中国律所领导力与发展战略代表团”抵达纽约。
5月2日，在美国纽约曼哈顿的花旗私人银行，智合携手花旗银行共同举办了“中美律所领袖峰会”。
会上，6家全球顶尖律师事务所主任就“新形势下中美律所管理和法律市场的机遇与挑战”与中国律所主任展开高峰对谈，他们是美国世达律师事务所、美国达维律师事务所、美国瑞生律师事务所、美国佳利律师事务所、美国德普律师事务所、美国瑞格律师事务所，分别位列2017年Vault 100的第3、5、7、12、17、21名。
在律所管理方面，美国同行有什么经验？
全球扩张时，他们是如何调整管理策略的？
在中美贸易政策发生变化时，律师能发挥怎样的作用？
这些答案，都在这场峰会中。
以下是智合CEO洪祖运的纽约演讲实录。
中国法律市场的潜力
与外资律所的机遇
The Potential of China’s Legal Market and Opportunities for Overseas Law Firms.
在过去的四年时间里，智合一直专注于中国法律市场的研究，我们拜访了数百家中国市场的头部律所，采访了数千名律师，搜集整理了大量的数据。在这一过程中，我们发现了许多有趣的现象。
In the past four years, we've been observing, recording and analyzing the legal market in China. We have visited hundreds of leading Chinese law firms, interviewed thousands of lawyers, and collected a lot of data and information. Today, I'm going to share with you some of our interesting findings that we have come across so far.
今天，我的演讲将分为三个部分：1.中国法律市场的增速和潜力；2.中国法律市场的开放程度与外资律所的前景；3.中国的国际战略下外资律所可能遇到的机遇。
My speech will be divided into three parts. First, I'll talk about the growth and potential of China's legal market.Then I'll move on to the openness of China's legal market and the prospect of overseas law firms in China. In the third part I will talk about opportunities for foreign law firms in the context of China's opening-up.
01
中国法律市场的增速和潜力
The Growth and Potential of China’s Legal Market.
在这一部分，我将以2008年到2017年中国律师行业的相关数据，以及中国法律服务市场的变革与创新来说明中国法律市场的增速与潜力。
As you may have already noticed, China's legal market has been expanding fast during the last ten years from 2008 to 2017. I'm going to show you some data.
第一部分
十年间不断增长
的律师人数和律所数量
Growing Numbers of Qualified Lawyers and Law Firms
自2008年到2017年，中国执业律师人数增长132.93%；律所数量增长93.1%。
From 2008 to 2017, the number of qualified PRC lawyers has increased by 132.93%; the number of PRC law firms has increased by 93.1%.
十年时间，中国执业律师从15.67万人增长至36.5万人。其中从2009年到2010年、2016年到2017年，执业律师人数增长最为迅猛，均增长了将近4万人。从2008年到2017年，平均每年，中国执业律师人数的增长都约为10%。
In the past ten years, the number of qualified lawyers has increased from 156.7 thousand to 365 thousand. Notably, the growths in 2010 and 2017 were particularly great, each over 40 thousand. The average annual growth in number of qualified Chinese lawyers from 2008 to 2017 is around 10%.
若按照省级来划分，律师人数超过1万人的省有9个（河北、辽宁、浙江、福建、河南、湖北、湖南、四川和云南），超过2万人的省（市）有4个（北京、上海、江苏、山东），超过3万人的省有1个（广东）。
From a provincial perspective. Guangdong province now has more qualified Chinese lawyers than any other provinces in China. It’s also the only province with over 30 thousand qualified Chinese lawyers.
Besides Guangdong, we have another 4 provinces or direct-controlled municipalities that each have over 20 thousand qualified Chinese lawyers, namely, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Shandong.
Also, there’re 9 provinces that each have over 10 thousand but no more than 20 thousand qualified Chinese lawyers. They are Hebei, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Fujian, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan and Yunnan.
十年时间，中国律所从1.45万家增长至2.8万家，增长了约一倍。
In the past ten years from 2008 to 2017, the number of Chinese law firms has almost doubled, from 14.5 thousand to 28 thousand.
第二部分
不断攀升的律师业务
Growing Legal Services Business
自2008年到2017年，中国律师办理各类诉讼案件增长136.3%；办理非诉讼法律事务增长67.23%；担任法律顾问增长95.94%。
From 2008 to 2017, the number of contentious legal matters has increased by 136.3%; the number of non-contentious legal matters has increased 67.23%; and the legal advisor business has increased in number by 95.94%.
从2008年到2017年，中国的社会经济正处于急剧的发展与变革之中，中国的法治建设在向前推进，相应地，对于法律服务的需求也水涨船高。诉讼案件、非诉法律事务、担任法律顾问三大数据的增长，最能说明中国企业与中国人民的法律意识正不断提高。2008年，中国律师的整体创收不过区区300亿，而到了2017年，中国律师的整体创收已达到了1000亿规模，增长了2.3倍。
You know, China has been changing greatly in the past ten years in its social and economic contexts. It has also advanced its rule of law. These have all contributed to the increasing demand for legal services. That all three types of legal services have been growing also implies that the legal awareness of Chinese people is growing. In 2008, the total revenue of the legal services business in China was only round 4.8 billion USD. In 2017, the total revenue reached 15.9 billion USD. That is an increase by around 230%.
第三部分
聚焦市场头部，
中国总创收排名前30名律所的表现
China’s Largest 30 Law Firms by Revenue
如果要对中国法律市场进行更加细致的分析，除了明确市场的整体趋势之外，我们还应将目光投向市场中的头部律所。
Besides the overall trend of growing in China’s legal market, we should also take a look at the top law firms in China.
整体趋势：2016年，总创收前30强律所的创收总和达到了261.5亿元人民币（约合41.7亿美元），利润达到了126.6亿元人民币（约合20.2亿美元），与2013年相比，4年时间翻了一倍。这30家律所的律师人数从2013年的16241名，增加到2016年28218名，激增74%。
In 2016, the total revenue of the top 30 law firms in China reached 4.17 billion USD, which has more than doubled in 4 years from 2013. The total profit of the top 30 law firms is 2.02 billion USD. The total number of lawyers of the 30 firms has increased from 16,241 in 2013 to 28,218 in 2016.
以下为从2014-2016年，在总创收、人均创收、律师人数三个方面，增长最快的律师事务所。
Here are the fastest growing firms from 2014 to 2016, respectively in terms of total revenue, revenue per lawyer and number of lawyers.
第四部分
法律科技市场的欣欣向荣
The Prosperous Legal-Tech Market
任何产业在迈向成熟的同时，都会开启对整合创新、提升效率和降低成本的不懈追求。随着互联网成为基础设施，中国法律服务市场亦在上演着创新与变革，其最具代表性的，便是法律科技公司的大量增加，以及替代性法律服务提供商的崛起。
We also have watched the prosperous legal-tech market. As any industry moves toward maturity, its demand for innovation, efficiency and lower cost will also grow. In the legal services sector of China, we have noticed another two phenomena.
根据《2017年度互联网法律服务行业调研报告》，中国的法律互联网企业在不断上升，并在2016年达到了高潮。围绕法律电商、法律大数据、案例数据库等产品的布局愈发成熟。
One is that there have been quite a number of legal-tech companies in the market. According to the 2017 Internet Legal Services Industry Survey Report, legal-tech companies are developing rapidly. We can see from the bar chart on the screen that there was a peak in 2016.
Another phenomenon is that alternative legal services providers are playing an increasingly important role, to some extent competing with law firms.
当社会经济部分的行业分工逐步细化之后，市场对于法律服务的需求呈现日益多元化的发展，中国律所正致力于提升法律服务的整体层次，整合事务所的专业资源，朝着高端、高附加值的服务领域迈进，为客户提供差异化的的解决方案。不仅如此，中国法律市场的法律服务已开始呈现标准化、系统化、产品化的发展趋势，许多中国律所也开始与法律科技公司、平台进行融合。
As the division of labor in the socio-economic sector gradually refines,the demand for legal services in the market is increasingly diversified. There're many law firms in China committed to devoting the firm's professional resources towards high-end legal services and providing bespoke legal services for clients, while some legal services can indeed be standardized and productized.
02
中国法律市场的开放程度
与外资律所的前景
The Openness of China’s Legal Market and the Prospect of Overseas Law Firms in China.
根据司法部最新统计数据，截至2017年底，共有来自23个国家和地区的242家律师事务所在中国(内地)设立了308家代表机构。
According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Justice of the PRC, a total of 242 law firms from 23 countries and regions established 308 representative offices in mainland China at the end of 2017.
其中外国律师事务所驻华代表机构244家，香港律师事务所驻内地代表机构64家，有11家香港律师事务所与内地律师事务所建立了合伙型联营律师事务所，有4家在上海自贸区设立代表处的外国律师事务所与中国律师事务所实行联营。
There are 244 foreign law firm's representative offices and 64 Hong Kong lawfirm's representative offices in mainland China. There're 11 joint operations formed by a Hong Kong law firm with a Mainland law firm. There're 4 joint operations formed by a foreign law firm with a Mainland law firm located in the Shanghai Free-Trade Zone.
第一部分
外国律所驻华机构：
英美大所是主流，上海数量超过北京
The Present Status of Foreign Law Firms' Representative Offices in China
The foreign law firms' representative offices in China are mainly from the UK and the US. And Shanghai housed more representative offices than Beijing
我们对2017年9月司法部第175号公告中公布的，通过2016年检的223家外国律师事务所驻华代表机构进行统计之后，得出了以下两个图表，发现了三大特征：
According to the statistics in the Announcement No. 175 released by the Ministry of Justice in September 2017, we have some interesting findings after analyzing the 223 foreign law firm offices in China through the annual inspection of 2016.
首先，外国律所驻华机构中，以美、英、日、德、法律所占比最大，其中英美大所更是占据了62.3%。
First, law firms from US, UK, Japan, Germany and France in descending order have set up most representative offices. The representative offices of UK and US law firms together account for 62.3% of the total.
其次，北京、上海一共拥有211家外国律所驻华办事机构。具体而言，北京进驻了85家，上海设立126家，占223家外资律所驻华机构的94.6%。
Second, Beijing and Shanghai housed a total of 211 foreign law firm’s representative offices together. Inparticular, Beijing had 85 offices of them and Shanghai had 126, collectively accounting for 94.6% of the total.
而上海的律所驻华办事机构中，国家又呈现多样化的特点，譬如巴西诺劳亚律师事务所、比利时德沃福律师事务所、毛里求斯毅柏律师事务所都只在上海一处设立办事处。
The representative offices in Shanghai are more diversified than those in Beijing. For example, the Noronha Advogados from Brazil, the De Wolf & Partners from Belgium and the Appleby from Mauritius have all located their single China offices in Shanghai.
最后，上海的外国律所驻华机构数量大幅超过北京。
Finally, the number of foreign law firms' representative offices in Shanghai is significantly more than that of Beijing.
北京和上海是中国法律服务行业最为发达的地区，其无论是律师人数、律所数量，还是律师总创收、人均创收均远远超过国内其他省市。我们先来看看北京和上海的相关数据。
Beijing and Shanghai are the most developed areas in China's legal services industry. Both have surpassed most of other direct-controlled municipalities and provinces in China in terms of number of lawyers, number oflaw firms, total revenue of lawyers and revenue per lawyer.
Let’s have a look at the relevant data of Beijing and Shanghai.
第二部分
200亿规模的北京、上海法律
服务市场，上演着“双城记”效应
Tale of the Two Cities: Beijing and Shanghai
Beijing and Shanghai each has a legal services market size over 3 billion USD
北京在律师和律所基础较大的情况下，依然保持了规模上较大的增长。当然在总人数上，规模化律所都给北京与上海两地的人数做了巨大贡献。上海的创收增速更快，在人均创收上的优势更为明显。
According to the tables in slides, it is clear that the number of lawyers and firms in Beijing and Shanghai has maintained significant growthrate even with a large base. Big laws have contributed a lot to the large total number of lawyers in Beijing and Shanghai. Compared with Beijing firms, Shanghai firms have a higher growth rate in total revenue and an even greater advantage in terms of revenue per lawyer.
我们认为，上海相较于北京有更多外资律所办公室入驻的原因可能有三：
We think that there are 3 reasons why more foreign law firm's representative offices are located in Shanghai than in Beijing.
1、上海毗邻东海出海口，有天然海运优势，国际贸易、海商海事方面的法律服务需求较多；
First, Shanghai locates at the Yangtze River estuary place, the shore of the East China Sea, and a natural port city calls for legal services for international trades and maritime issues.
2、上海作为国际金融中心和中国的经济中心，其务实的海派文化氛围浓厚，开放性和包容性使其具备了较强的吸引力，加之上交所的设立，使其在资本市场、跨境并购等业务领域具有得天独厚的优势；
Second, as the international financial center and China's economic center, Shanghai has a unique culture. The openness and inclusiveness of Shanghai make it appealing to business entities. The establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange highlights its advantages in areas including capital markets and cross-border M&A.
3、受国家政策扶持，上海自贸区对外业务开展更为便利优厚。
Third, thanks to relevant favorable policies, Shanghai has a Free-Trade Zone which makes it more convenient for foreign entities to conduct business here.
当然，我们猜也有可能是相较于北京，上海的空气质量要稍好一些。
Also, Shanghai has a much better air quality than Beijing.
第三部分
外资律所
何以在中国占据一席之地？
How Can Foreign Law Firms Maintain Competitive in China?
虽然外资所不能聘用中国执业律师以及不能从事中国法律业务，一部分国际客户无需在通过外资所代表处来管理中国法律业务，在一定程度上限制了外资所在中国的发展，但我们认为，中国法律市场仍有外资所发展的机遇。
There are restrictions for foreign law firms to carry out legal services business in China. They cannot practice PRC law. PRC-qualified lawyers they employed are not permitted to give formal advice on PRC law issues. Therefore, foreign law firms in China can't even fully serve their international clients. But we think there're still opportunities for foreign law firms in China.
对于外资所而言，首先要在中国法律市场上找准自身的定位和核心，与亚太乃至全球的战略相吻合，并能适应中国的商业文化环境。
Foreign law firms must quickly learn and adapt themselves to China’s social context and business culture and find their particular position and core business in China’s legal market, which should be in line with its Asia-Pacific or global strategy.
时至今日，在中国法律市场上，已经不乏“懂法律，懂中国，懂经济，懂外语”的人才，找到适合的人才开疆拓土是外资所在中国市场能够长远立足的关键。
Nowadays it's not too difficult to find someone who is able to understands the legal, economic, social contexts and speak good English. Foreign law firms must find the right person to lead their business in China.
中国第一梯队的律所已经具备直接为国际客户提供法律服务的能力，而且得到了客户的认可。中资所的崛起确实会与外资所构成直接的竞争。但也有许多外资所找到了与中资所合作的模式，并且发展良好。
Also, foreign law firms must properly understand and deal with the rapid rise of their Chinese counterparts. Top Chinese firms now have the ability to provide quality legal services for international clients. There will certainly be more direct competition. But many foreign law firms have already found their own way to deal with it.
03
中国的国际战略下外资律所
可能遇到的机遇
Opportunities for Foreign Law Firms in the context of China’s Opening-up
法律服务从来都是与社会经济的发展相伴相生，“客户的需求在哪里，律师的服务就在哪里”，在中国目前的时代背景和国家战略下，律所和律师都能在其中找到自己的位置和机遇。
Legal services are always closely linked to the development of the social economy. Where there are clients, there are lawyers. Under China's current background and national strategy, both law firms and lawyers can find their own place.
这里，我重点谈谈“一带一路”倡议、中国经济的全面开放以及新经济产业的发展可能为律师事务所带来的机遇。
Here, I would like to talk about the opportunities generated by China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative, the full opening-up of the Chinese economy and the development of the new economic industries.
第一部分
在“一带一路”倡议下，
将会催生哪些涉外法律服务？
Newly-generated Demand for Legal Services by the Belt and Road Initiative
中国的“一带一路”倡议，对律师事务所而言，会留下大量法律服务的需求和空间，带来了重大的发展机遇。“一带一路”沿线国家所需的法律服务包括但不限于以下这些：
China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative will create a growing demand for legal services. Countries along the Belt and Road routes will need legal services including these sectors:
涉外商事诉讼与仲裁法律服务；
Legal services for commercial litigations and arbitrations.
就投资项目的全程法律服务，包括交易架构设计、尽职调查、起草/审查合同、谈判等；
Legal services for investment-making, including designing the transaction framework, conducting due diligence, drafting and reviewing contract, conducting negotiations.
东盟十国等“一带一路”沿线国家的自贸区（FTA）法律服务；
Legal services related to the free-trade zones of countries along the Belt and Road routes , including ASEAN countries.
针对投融资及大额贸易的税收、环保、劳工、外汇等方面的尽职调查服务；
Legal services for due diligence on taxation, environmental protection, employment, foreign exchange, etc. for investment, financing and high-value transactions.
避免中资企业“走出去”时在中国和东道国双重征税法律服务；
Legal services on double taxation issues for “going out” Chinese enterprises .
投资者与东道国投资争议法律服务。
Legal services for dispute resolution between investors and host countries.
第二部分
中国经济的全面开放
与中国企业“走出去”
Full Opening-up of China’s Economy and “Going Out” of Chinese Enterprises
2018年4月，中国在博鳌亚洲论坛上宣布，中国会将改革进行到底，并且中国的大门会越开越大。
In April 2018, a speech at the Boao Forum for Asia called for that the course of the reform process would be conducted consistently and China's doors of opening-up would open even wider.
这个演讲已经释放出了重要的信号，中国将会进一步加大改革开放的力度——大幅度放宽市场准入；创造更有吸引力的投资环境；加强知识产权的保护；主动扩大进口。与此同时，中国还公开了金融业开放的时间表，其中涉及银行业、证券及基金业、保险业、股票互联互通及合格境内机构投资者等多个方面。
The speech has sent a strong signal that China will further reinforce its efforts in opening-up and reform by significantly broadening market access, creating a more attractive investment environment, strengthening IPR protection and expanding imports.
At the same time, China also published a plan for opening-up financial service sectors to foreign investors, including banking, securities, fund and insurance industries, stocks, qualified domestic institutional investors and etc.
一方面，是中国经济的全面开放；另一方面，是越来越多的中国企业走向国际，近年来，中国企业海外IPO、海外并购投资额总体呈现上涨趋势，且未来增长被持续看好。根据国家发改委在2017年11月发布的《中国对外投资报告》，自2002年至2016年，对外投资流量年均增长率35.8%；民营企业势头迅猛，占对外投资企业总数的六成以上。
In the process of the comprehensive opening-up in economy, more and more Chinese enterprises are going out. In recent years, the investment amount on the overseas IPOs and M&A of Chinese enterprises has generally shown an upward trend and its future growth is expected to continue. According to a Report released by Chinese government in November 2017, the average annual growth rate of foreign investment flows was 35.8% from 2002 to 2016. Private enterprises were gaining momentum and accounting for over 60% of the total number.
第三部分
新经济产业的发展
给律师事务所带来的机遇
Opportunities for Law Firms as New Economic Industries Develop
眼下，中国社会正处于急剧的变革之中，中国企业的商业逻辑正在重构。与此同时，具有新产业、新业态、新商业模式的新经济形态出现，如人工智能、金融科技、区块链技术、智能设备等产业不断发展。
Right now, Chinese society is undergoing dramatic changes. The business infrastructure of Chinese enterprises is being restructured. At the same time, new economic forms with new industries, new formats and new business models have emerged. The world has witnessed the continuous development of artificial intelligence, financial technology, blockchain, smart devices and other industries.
投融资、上市、并购、基金设立、股权计划、财富管理等围绕新经济产业的业务会催生新型的法律服务产品。事实上，在中国法律市场，已有不少专门围绕新经济产业提供法律服务的新生代律师事务所。外资所以成熟的管理制度和法律服务模式进入新经济领域，亦将大有可为。
Businesses related to the new economy such as investment, financing, IPO, M&A, fund establishment, equity plans, wealth managementand etc. will nurture new legal services and products. In fact, many new-generation law firms are providing legal services related to the new economic industries in China’s legal market now. We have confidence that the foreign law firms' representative offices in China with mature management system and legal service model will have bright prospects after entering into this area.
结语
Conclusion
在这里，我围绕今天的主题，提出中国法律服务市场未来的五大趋势。
Based on what I have talked about today, I think there will be five trends in the future of China's legal market.
第一，中国法律市场必将继续呈现大增长的态势，从1000亿到5000亿规模，可能在未来10年内实现。
First, the size of China's legal market will continue to grow. I think in ten years the market size will be around 80 billion USD.
第二，依托于本土市场与国际化机会，中国的经济与金融将持续开放，中国企业必将继续高速发展，对于资本和法律服务的需求也会越来越大，无论是中国律所，还是外资律所，都将迎来自己的机会。
Second, based on the strong domesticmarket and international opportunities, China's economy will continue to openup and Chinese enterprises will develop fast, with a growing need for capital and legal services. This will be an opportunity for both Chinese and foreign law firms.
第三，在中国法律市场，围绕法律服务全过程的科技公司、系统、产品将会越来越多，也会愈发成熟。外资律所与中国的法律科技公司将有大量的合作机会。
Third, in China, there will be more legal-tech companies and they will provide more developed systems and products. There will be more opportunities for foreign law firms to work with Chinese legal-tech companies.
第四，在中国的国家战略、经济全面开放、新经济产业不断发展的背景下，将会催生越来越多新型的法律服务需求。
Fourth, there will be demand for legal services of new types, with China being more and more open up and new economic industries growing.
第五，在中国法律市场上，未来会有越来越多的中资所与外资所走向合作与融合。
Fifth, there will be more cooperation and fusion between Chinese and foreign law firms.
我相信，在这样的高速增长下，中国法律市场必将成为全球最大的法律市场之一。
I’m positive that China’s legal market will be one of the largest legal markets in the world.
That’s all. Thank you.
责编/Wendy 编辑/Angie 分类/原创